Last week you may have seen a poll from Connecticut-based Quinnipiac University showing Ed trailing Democrat Lieutenant Governor Ralph Northam by eight points. This is good news, because it means the race is actually tied.
See, “Q Polls”, as they’re known, have a terrible track record of predicting outcomes here in Virginia. As we have pointed out in the past in our “Guide to Understanding Polls in Virginia,” this small, private university lacks the necessary resources to conduct state-of-the-art polling, but still conducts surveys in an effort to market themselves to prospective students. Sadly,the media falls for it every time.
In 2013, the Quinnipiac University poll had Ken Cuccinelli losing to Terry McAuliffe by 6 points, with just 40% of the vote. The actual result was far closer: Cuccinelli won 45% of the vote and the margin was just 2.6%.
Similarly, in 2014, Quinnipiac University missed the mark again. Their last poll before Election Day showed Ed Gillespie losing by 9 points with just 39% of the vote. But on Election Day, Ed came within 0.8% of beating Mark Warner with 48% of the vote.
Just last year, the Q Poll showed President Trump down by double digits – 13 points – here in Virginia to Hillary Clinton. But on Election Day, the margin was 6 points.
For those keeping score at home, the Quinnipiac University Poll has been wrong by an average of 6 points in the last three statewide elections. If you factor this into last week’s poll, you get a much more realistic snapshot of the state of the race – a contest within the margin of error. A finding consistent with two other public polls which were almost unanimously ignored by the media.