This afternoon, Harper Polling released the Virginia gubernatorial race’s first independent, post-primary poll showing Ed Gillespie and Ralph Northam tied at 46-46, reaffirming that the fall campaign opens up as a true dead heat. The finding almost identically matches the numbers released Wednesday from our campaign’s internal polling.
More from today’s poll:
- 19% of undecided voters Lean Gillespie; 7% lean Northam
- 45% of respondents have a favorable view of Gillespie
You can read the full poll HERE.
Today’s numbers continue to demonstrate how close the general election campaign is at its opening. The Gillespie campaign emerges in a very strong position heading into the race. As detailed in a publicly released memo from campaign manager Chris Leavitt following Tuesday’s primary victory:
“The primaries left our campaign with a very strong cash on hand figure, and a robust ground game that made more than 800,000 contacts during the primary, powered by over 6,000 volunteers. Now, the operation we have built will turn its attention to the general election. The primaries also placed Ed Gillespie squarely in the center-right of Virginia politics. On the Democratic side, the long, expensive and bitter primary forced Ralph Northam to spend over $4 million, reducing his cash on hand to half of ours, and, more importantly, pushing him far to the left politically. He enters the general election as a candidate who has taken numerous positions that are further to the left than anything previously advocated by successful Democratic gubernatorial candidates like current Governor Terry McAuliffe, and former governors Tim Kaine, Mark Warner and Doug Wilder. As Politico noted, “The Democratic primary to be Virginia’s next governor has been an open race to the left.” (Politico, June 8, 2017) Now, Ralph Northam is stuck there, unable to get back to the center.”
The memo also featured polling data from our polling firm, Public Opinion Strategies:
Last week, our polling firm, Public Opinion Strategies, conducted a statewide general election survey of 600 likely voters in Virginia. The survey was conducted June 6‐8, and has a margin of error of ±4.0%. The survey included 240 cell phone interviews.
The poll had three key findings:
- Ed Gillespie starts with a slight lead over Ralph Northam
- Ed Gillespie is polling at 46%, while Ralph Northam is at 45%.
- Ed Gillespie leads Ralph Northam by double digits among independent voters
- Among independents, Ed Gillespie is polling at 49%, while Ralph Northam is at 37%.
- Despite Ralph Northam holding a statewide office, more voters know Ed Gillespie
- Nearly nine in 10 voters (85%) know Ed Gillespie while only six in 10 voters (64%) know Ralph Northam.
It’s clear that Gillespie is in a strong position, both financially and politically, as the general election gets underway.